NBA: East Finals – Game 5 – Boston at Orlando

NBA: East Finals – Game 5 – Boston at Orlando

2010-05-26

Often times, public perception can play a big role in how oddsmakers set up lines for high profile sports games. This year’s Eastern Conference Finals series is certainly no exception. With each of the Celtics’ first three wins of the series, the next games line got progressively weighted towards Boston. It may have gone too far though in Game 4, as Boston was set up as a 7.5-point favorite at Sportsbook.com, a swing of over 14-points from Game 1. Orlando perhaps used the line as motivation and survived in the series with a win. Game 5 comes Wednesday, and the Magic are 3.5-point home favorites, a more realistic number.

Sports bettors can get a good feel for what “Joe Average” is thinking about a series or sporting event by browsing around different forums and social sites. After the Game 4 win by the Magic, reasons for running rampant for the sudden revival of a team thought to be D.O.A.

The most common theme was this is all fixed by David Stern and Orlando was going to come back and tie the series at 3-3, with opinions varying who wins the deciding seventh game. Many praised Orlando for not emailing it in and wondered aloud if this is the sign of the Magic finally playing up to capabilities or if it was a one night stand and reality comes a callin’ back at home. On the betting side, most thought it was a gift to take Orlando at +7 seeing that was a two touchdown turnaround (14-point swing) in less than week, regardless of the location.

Equal numbers lambasted Boston for not bringing the necessary determination to close out an opponent who had been all but willing to be beaten for large expanses of the series and questioned the Celtics commitment to excellence. For those that see Stern as the reason the series was extended at least one more contest, it turns out the real culprit was Stan Van Gundy, the Magic coach, who made two wise moves before Game 4 even started.

He had witnessed three games and broken down tape and determined Rajon Rondo was too disruptive as defender, especially against Jameer Nelson. Instead of setting single screens which Rondo routinely beat, he set up staggered screens.

This created more room for Nelson to operate, who is a shooter first and passer second as a point guard. Rondo couldn’t use his quickness to jump thru or around two Orlando players and Boston seemed puzzled as to what to do with Nelson in more open areas.

This placed different Celtics big men in no-man’s land and Dwight Howard for the first time had room to work with and the Magic’s offense had continuity, sending them home 16-5 ATS after failing to cover two of their last three against the spread this season.

While it’s impossible to gauge the impact, Orlando played more ready from the start. Van Gundy had told his squad no team had EVER come back from 3-0 deficit in the NBA playoffs (93-0), because they had not placed enough value on winning the fourth game in the series. Most of the Orlando players showed more passion and now they own a diabolical angle moving ahead to this game: 13-0 ATS after a win by six points or less this season, with average margin of victory 16 points.

Boston deserves plenty of blame for this series extension. The first aspect is the Celtics play after the third quarter in this East Finals. Most of the time Doc Rivers squad has enjoyed big leads going into the final 12 minutes and NBA contests have a natural ebb and flow, nonetheless after awhile you wonder about a team being outscored 105-78 in the last quarter and beyond. (Outscored all four games)

Sportsbook.com has Orlando as 3.5-point favorites, but they are only 2-6 ATS when doling out 4.5 or less points at home. Boston right now is not in scurrying mode from one loss –“There's definitely no need to panic. We like the position we're in," Ray Allen said. The Celtics are on a 15-5-1 ATS run as postseason underdogs.

The Magic face a second match point trying to force a sixth conflict and build further momentum. ESPN will be on hand at 8:30 Eastern, with KG and company 11-2 UNDER revenging a straight up loss as a home favorite. The StatFox Power Line shows Orlando by 4.

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